Report the past, then model forward
Most training tools are rear-view mirrors: they total up what you did and chart it. Adaptive Training does that too — accurately — and then takes the next step, modeling where your fitness and form are heading so today's session is a decision, not a guess.
The reporting is solid and standard. The forward-looking models are clearly marked as estimates and are still being validated against what's already out there.
01 Fitness, fatigue & form
Every ride carries a training load. Adaptive Training rolls those loads into three exponentially-weighted averages: a slow one (fitness), a fast one (fatigue), and their difference (form). Build fitness without burying form and you arrive at an event both fit and fresh.
This is a Banister-style impulse-response model — the same shape GoldenCheetah and intervals.icu use, computed from your own rides.
02 The power-duration curve
For every duration from one second to hours, Adaptive Training finds your best-ever power and plots the curve. It's the most informative single picture of a cyclist: sprinters tower on the left, time-triallists hold up the right.
03 Critical Power & W′
Fit a curve to those bests and two numbers fall out: Critical Power (CP) — the highest intensity you can hold more or less indefinitely — and W′ ("W-prime"), the fixed pool of energy you have above CP. Think of W′ as an anaerobic battery: a set number of matches to burn before you blow up.
04 W′bal — the matchstick burn
Ride above CP and you spend W′; drop below and it recharges. Adaptive Training traces this W′ balance second-by-second beneath your power curve, so you can see exactly when a hard effort empties the battery — and whether you had enough left for the finish.
05 Durability
Fresh numbers flatter everyone. The races that matter are decided deep into a long ride, so Adaptive Training measures how much of your power you keep after 1,500, 2,500, and 3,500 kJ of work — your durability, the fade most tools never show you.
06 Defensible estimates
Not every activity has a power meter. Rather than invent a number, Adaptive Training falls back through a clear hierarchy — perceived effort, then heart rate, then a sane ceiling — so a hike or a kids' MTB lap never lands a wildly inflated training load.
07 Planning to an event
Pick a goal event and Adaptive Training estimates its demands — the durations and intensities it will ask of you — then compares them against your current curve to surface the gaps still standing between you and the start line. That's what shapes the sessions it suggests.